Libya's New Government: Challenges & Opportunities

A session to discuss the new cabinet of the national unity government in Libya "will be held in Sirte as scheduled on Monday, March 8," Abdullah Belhaq the spokesperson of the Libyan Parliament, confirmed yesterday.

This came after the Prime Minister-elect of Libya, Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba, had handed over his cabinet proposal to the parliament in Tobruk to hold a vote of confidence on his new government.

The U.S. Embassy released a statement on February 7, confirming that the American ambassador, Richard Norland, encouraged Al-Dabaiba to"identify a small, competent, technocratic cabinet team that can quickly be granted confidence by the House of Representatives."

"Urgent measures are needed by the Libyan leaders to implement the necessary reforms in the electricity sector and other key areas," Norland said.

Libya faces a new crossroads, and the road to a political solution appears closer than ever before. However, there are a series of hurdles on that road.

Challenges Ahead

From suspicions about the integrity of the election process of the new government to urgent domestic issues such as institutional division, it is fair to foresee that the new government of Libya has some serious challenges ahead.

1- Hush Money

AFP, the French News Agency, reported that the UN panel of experts revealed, in a report submitted to the Security Council, that"at least three participants in UN-led Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) were bribed for votes," which resulted in the election of the new executive authority.

In the report, UN experts found that during Tunis talks, two of the participants offered "bribes ranging from $150,000 to $200,000 to at least three members of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum if they committed to vote for Al-Dabaiba as prime minister."

Nevertheless, Al-Dabaiba, asserted "the integrity of the process in which the new authority was chosen represented in the Presidential Council, as well as the presidency of the National Unity Government."

The Libya Prime Minster also called on the UN experts to publish the investigation report. “We affirm our commitment and pledge to combat corruption and fight it by all legal means, and we won’t allow any responsibility to be assumed by anyone involved in corruption,” said the new unity government.

Last Tuesday, the UN distanced itself from the "allegations of bribery" that occurred during the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Tunis, stressing that the UN team, that revealed these allegations, is "a separate and independent entity" from the international organization.

Despite the fact that 24 deputies from HoR demanded the session of granting confidence to the government to be postponed until the report is issued, a session to discuss the new cabinet will be held in Sirte on March 8.

The ball now is in the HoR’ court, and the question of granting this new government the confidence necessary to accomplish its tasks will be answered very soon. As for plan B to be granted confidence, Al-Dabaiba may have to resort to the 73 members of the political dialogue to get approved.

“We have two options in the process of choosing the form of government, and the disagreement of the deputies may push us to adopt the second option," Al-Dabaiba tweeted on February 23.

2- The Defense Minister Dilemma

The differences between the East and West regions in Libya on the defense ministry will continue to be another obstacles to the new unity government.

26 figures from the HoR and the High Council of State (HCS) agreed to distribute leadership positions in seven sovereign institutions as follows:

Tripoli Region: the Audit Bureau, the Attorney General, and the High Elections Commission

Fezzan Region: the Anti-Corruption Commission and the Supreme Court

Cyrenaica Region: the Central bank and the Administrative Control Authority

But since the military ministry was excluded from the agreement, Al-Dabaiba can decide to nominate himself as minister of defense in the future, especially after General Abdul Razzaq Khalifa Marzouq, a representative of the "Fezzan" Region, apologized for not filling the job.

3- Unifying Institutions

Unifying the economic institutions such as National Oil Corporation and the Central Bank may not be a major problem for the new government, yet the destiny of Libya’s military institution is still unknown.

The militias in the whole country as well as the 20,000 foreign fighters represent “a serious crisis” and “a shocking violation of Libyan sovereignty,” UN Acting Special Representative Stephanie Williams said during the latest meeting in the Political Dialogue Forum.

If officially selected by the HoR, the new Libyan administration won't be able to do much given that it has until December of this year to conduct elections. It would be a major victory, however, if it concentrates only on integrating the economic institutions since it would alleviate pressing problems like the liquidity issue and erratic oil output.

Opportunities

Here are some signs of cautious optimism for the new government in Libya:

First, the international comunity is very supportive of the transitional phase in Libya, especially the US, which was able to pass a significant law, the"Libya Stability Act". This law focuses on the support for humanitarian aid, democratic governance, civil society, and future elections. Besides, it calls on the improvement of the financial management of the public sector. But more importantly, this act punishes actors supporting mercenary and militias, and violating the arms embargo imposed by the United Nations. It's an opportunity - if employed properly - would change the power dynamics in Libya.

Second, the agreement that was reached between the "5 + 5 Military Committee" in October is a significant accomplishment; it has imposed a ceasefire and opened the door for political discussion.

Third, Haftar's attack on Tripoli caused the Libyan Parliament to split in 2019, resulting in two parliaments: one in Tripoli and the other in Tobruk. However, in accordance with the political agreement, the President Council should be held by the East of the nation, the West would have the presidency of the government, and the South should hold the presidency of the parliament. If this were to happen, it would also encourage boycotters to rejoin the HoR, restoring the latter to its full capacity as a single legislative body that represents all Libyans.